Climate Model Projections

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Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP3 climate model precipitation

Same Model but closest versions Same Ensemble Run: WCRP CMIP3 Climate Modeling Group WCRP CMIP3 Climate Model ID Atmospheric Model Resolution for SRES B1 runs WCRP CMIP5 Climate Model ID Atmospheric Model Resolution for RCP 4.5 runs Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Canada CGCM3.1 T47 (~2.8° x 2.8°) L31

Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington

Climatic Change (2010) 102:51 75 DOI 10.1007/s10584-010-9849-y Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington Eric P. Salathé Jr. L. Ruby Leung Yun Qian Yongxin Zhang

An Introduction to Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate

socioeconomic systems and more heavily managed ecosystems such as agriculture. From a climate perspec-tive, this included a focus both on the historical record and projections for future change. During the summer of 1998 a group of nearly 30 climate scientists, social scientists, and biologists met for

Projections and Uncertainties About Climate Change in an Era

climate change and damages in an unregulated policy space. The present study attempts to fill this void by investigating in detail the implications of a world in the absence of ambitious climate policies. It does so with a newly revised model, the DICE-2016R2 model (DICE stands for Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy).

Projections of Future Climate Change - IPCC

climate model is used here for the projections of climate change for the next century. The simple model is tuned to simulate the response found in several of the AOGCMs used here. The forcings for the simple model are based on the radiative forcing estimates from Chapter 6, and are slightly different to the forcings used by the AOGCMs.

Climate Projections - Regional District

projections for the 2080s illustrate a future climate scenario, assuming little progress by late century on a global shift away from a fossil fuel based economy. This report is intended to inform community-level planning and decision-making, and to provide a

Understanding climate model uncertainty in streamflow projection

Climate model projections. Bias Corrections. Validated model. Climate change Impacts assessment. Challenges. Sep 19, 2018. 4. 2018 SWAT Conference. Suit of

Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid

Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America Richard Seager, 1 * Mingfang Ting, 1 Isaac Held, 2,3 Yochanan Kushnir, 1 Jian Lu, 4 Gabriel Vecchi, 2 Huei-Ping Huang, 1 Nili Harnik, 5 Ants Leetmaa, 2 Ngar-Cheung Lau, 2,3 Cuihua Li,1 Jennifer Velez, 1 Naomi Naik 1

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6 Claudia Tebaldi 1, Kevin Debeire 2,3, Veronika Eyring 2,4, Erich Fischer 5, John Fyfe 6, Pierre 5 Friedlingstein 7,8, Reto Knutti 5, Jason Lowe 9,10, Brian 2¶1HLOO 11, Benjamin Sanderson 12, Detlef van


The temperature and precipitation climate change projections are based on simulations from the latest generation of climate models 1 from the International Panel on Climate Change and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. 2 The models were carefully selected from a

Model spread and progress in climate modelling

The range of climate projections from a multi-model ensemble with respect to a given emissions scenario is called model spread This spread is an ef-fect of the above-mentioned di erences between models. Our main object of inquiry in this paper is the model spread of the multi-model ensemble employed

Assessment of Future Climate Change Projections Using

procedure for the raw climate model outputs to produce better climate projections [12]. With these expected changes on future climate and water availability in the basin, appropriate adaptation

Characterizing the Uncertainty of Climate Change Projections

global climate models and determine statistics of the regional climate variables of interest. De-termining which model to trust above all others is a daunting task, and one defensible strategy is to utilize all that are available, synthesizing the projections and their uncertainty through a rigorous statistical analysis.

Temperature and Precipitation Projections

Here, future projections are based on simulations from the 4 CMIP3 climate models with SRES A1fi and B1 simulations used in the 2007 Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment and the 2009 Second National Climate Assessment: CCSM3, GFDL CM2.1, HadCM3 and PCM. The second set of climate model simulations consists of models that have contributed to phase

High-resolution Climate Projections for Ireland A Multi

High-resolution Climate Projections for Ireland A Multi-model Ensemble Approach 3.14 Specific Humidity Projections 35 3.15 Relative Humidity Projections 38 3.16 Mean Sea Level Pressure Projections 41 3.17 Storm Track Projections 42 3.18 120-m Wind Power Projections 44 3.19 Surface Shortwave Radiation and Solar Photovoltaic Power 48

Creating Climate projections to support the 4th California

Jun 13, 2016 climate model projections is assumed. 2. Overview A robust climate assessment relies on multiple scenarios of future climate from the most current global climate models (GCMs) available. The most recent archive of GCM data is CMIP5, developed to support

Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September

Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic Jiping Liua,1, Mirong Songb, Radley M. Hortonc, and Yongyun Hud aDepartment of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222; bState Key Laboratory of

Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model

climate model projections Reto Knutti* and Jan Sedláˇcek Estimates of impacts from anthropogenic climate change rely on projections from climate models. Uncertainties in those have often been a limiting factor, in particular on local scales. A new generation of more complex models running scenarios

Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models

model average appears to still be useful in some situations, these results show that more quantitative methods to evaluate model performance are critical to maximize the value of climate change projections from global models. Corresponding author address: Reto Knutti, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universita

Uncertainty in Emissions Projections for Climate Models

Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Results are simulated through 2100 for carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH

Uncertainty in Regional Climate Model Mean Runoff Projections

Uncertainty in Regional Climate Model Mean Runoff Projections under Climate Change: Case Study of Labrador's Churchill River Basin Jonas Robertsa & Ken Snelgrovea a Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador Canada Published online: 16 Apr 2015.

CLIMATE Future Climate: Projected Average

The sixth chapter of the Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States covers climate-model projections of average atmospheric and hydrologic conditions. The projections use the same set of global climate models as the upcoming National Climate Assessment. These projections are compared with

Regional climate model projections of rainfall from U.S

Regional climate model projections 1 3 of more individual years this way, it does mean that we cannot examine the climate change simulations for changes in the length of the hurricane season under climate change. The experimental design used here assumes that the interannual and shorter-timescale variability from the


necting climate model projections of global temperature change to the real world. We also discuss further the rea - sons why anomalies have long been used for comparing observational data and model output, noting important limitations. Last, we discuss the implications for near-term and long-term projections of global-mean surface

Climate Models and the Use of Climate Projections

Climate Prediction Center defines a climate model as a mathematical model for quantitatively describing, simulating, and analyzing the interactions between the atmosphere and underlying surface (e.g., ocean, land, and ice). A Global Climate Model (GCM) combines a series of models of the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and land surface.

Climate Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging and Space

Climate Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging and Space-Time Dependence K. Sham Bhat, Murali Haran, Adam Terando, and Klaus Keller. Abstract Projections of future climatic changes are a key input to the design of climate change mitiga-tion and adaptation strategies. Current climate change projections are deeply uncertain. This

Downscaled Climate Document.NEW

Climate Projections Release of Downscaled CMIP5 Climate Projections, Comparison with Preceding Information, and Summary of User Needs Bureau of Reclamation Climate Analytics Group Climate Central Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Santa Clara University Scripps Institution of Oceanography U.S. Army Corps of Engineers U.S. Geological Survey

Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington

climate model using two different global models to provide forcing at the bound-aries. Both regional simulations use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). This model includes advanced representations of cloud microphysics and land-surface

Expert Meeting Assessing Multi-Model Projections - IPCC

Climate model simulations provide a cornerstone for climate change assessments. This paper summarizes the discussions and conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Expert Meeting on Assessing and Combining Multi Model Climate Projections, which was held in Boulder, USA on 25-27 January 2010.

A Practitioner s Guide to Scenarios

The RCPs are used in climate model simulations to produce projections of future climate variables, such as temperature or precipitation. Icons: Energy, Land Use/Cover Change, and Emission Projections quantitative projections of energy supply and demand, land use and land cover change, and GHG emissions associated with each SSP

Understanding Diverse Model Projections of Future Extreme El Niño

Climate model projections do not presently agree on either the magnitude or sign of twenty-first-century changes in the amplitude of ENSO-driven SST anomalies (Collins et al. 2010;

On the Hydrologic Adjustment of Climate-Model Projections

KEYWORDS: Hydrologic model; Climate change; Potential evapotranspi-ration 1. Introduction Climate-change experiments with numerical climate models produce projections of changes in the water cycle. These projections include changes in fluxes (precip-itation, evapotranspiration, and runoff) and storage (snowpack, soil water, and groundwater).

Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing

Dec 09, 2020 In particular, we contrast our statistical forecasts with projections from the ensemble of model simulations conducted for the fth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) { a highly-regarded central source for international global climate model projections. On average, these climate models envisage ice-free Arctic conditions close to the

Assessing Climate Model Projections of Anthropogenic Warming

32 climate model simulations to assess the accuracy of their future projections and to develop a framework for using 33 skill metrics to quantify the relationship between climate model hindcast skill and forecast skill. 34 The projected increase of radiative forcing in the SAR is of similar magnitude to modern best estimates of historical

Climate Models and the Use of Climate Projections: A Brief

Climate Prediction Center defines a climate model as a mathematical model for quantitatively describing, simulating, and analyzing the interactions between the atmosphere and underlying surface (e.g., ocean, land, and ice). A Global Climate Model (GCM) combines a series of models of the Earth s atmosphere, oceans, and land surface.

Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on

model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. It may therefore find wide ap-plication in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections. 1. Introduction The wide consensus among the scientific commu-nity that climate is changing and will almost certainly

Climate Projections for the City of San Antonio

Jun 28, 2018 Projections were averaged over 30-year periods (this is the period typically used to estimate climatic norms) so that the natural variability can be taken into account. The climate model projections are averaged over three 30-year time periods: near-term (2011-2040), mid-century (2041-2070), and end-of-century (2071-2100).

Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of

climate model simulations being conducted for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), Phase 5 (e.g. Tay-lor et al., 2012), and both will inform the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). A primary goal of ACCMIP is to use its ensemble of tropospheric chemistry-climate models to investigate the

Indo-Pacific Climate Modes in Warming Climate: Consensus and

Indo-Pacific Climate Modes in Warming Climate: Consensus and Uncertainty Across Model Projections Xiao-Tong Zheng1,2 Published online: 25 November 2019 Abstract Purpose of Review Understanding the changes in climate variability in a warming climate is crucial for reliable projections of future climate change.